The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) - which is part of the respected London-based magazine, The Economist - predicts that BN will win the 13th general election based on its successful track record, Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak’s reform agenda, and his successful economic leadership. For international observers, the outcome of the upcoming polls is already clear, that BN will be victorious, said the EIU. It also said that the opposition, Pakatan Rakyat, has been making "costly promises" to gain power, and that these were a big stumbling block. On all these counts, Pakatan Rakyat comes a distant second, prompting the EIU to predict that BN will be the winner.
The EIU, a think tank which offers regular country, industry and risk analysis, said that "it is clearly not feasible" for Pakatan to implement all of its campaign promises.
"For example, providing free secondary education would cost the government RM43 billion, while abolishing car duty would cut the tax revenue by RM4.6 billion a year," it said.
The EIU pointed out that Pakatan had broken many of its earlier promises, including financial assistance for university students, preschool education, home buyers, senior citizens and the disabled, free healthcare for those over 65, and lower property taxes.
On all these counts, Pakatan’s populism has remained to be simply hot air.
In Selangor, for example, BN claimed that Pakatan has implemented only 15 percent of its 31 election pledges - worth RM2.4 billion - made in its 2008 general election manifesto.
Selangor Menteri Besar Abdul Khalid Ibrahim commented that a manifesto is not a promise, but conceded that voters may think otherwise, the EIU noted.
Compare this with BN’s successful track record in fulfilling its promises, and you have a clear difference in approach.
For instance, Najib has promised Penang 20,000 affordable houses and a monorail service to ease traffic congestion, and that if BN comes to power in the state, voters are ensured that these plans would be implemented.
“The stakes are high for both (BN and Pakatan)... the bidding war is likely to continue as both sides make preparations for what is being billed as one of the hardest-fought elections in Malaysia’s history,” read the report.
Appeal to young, first-time voters
"Both will need to appeal to young, first-time voters, given that nearly three million people in this crucial voting block have been added to the electoral register since the last general election,” it added.
The EIU claimed that the "bulk of this group" was undecided about which party to vote for, and could swing the outcome of the election.
Najib needs to win big in order to secure the future of his reform agenda, while on the other hand, opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim wants to be the first to break BN’s stranglehold on the power they have now.
Meanwhile, Umno is upbeat with only weeks left for the polls as Najib has said that the party’s machinery is in the final stages of its preparations.
"We have received the audit report on our machinery, and from there I can say that our preparations are satisfying. At the same time, I hope the efforts to strengthen our preparations will continue to be carried out by leaders at the state level,” he told reporters after the Umno supreme council meeting last Friday.
Najib, who is also Umno president and BN chairperson, made the selection of winnable candidates the focus of his strategy, making it clear that BN should field candidates with the best chance of winning, regardless of which BN component party had kept the seats previously.
Another key reason for the ruling coalition’s strong morale is the ‘gravity defying’ growth of 5.2 percent that the country has been enjoying under Najib’s leadership, along with a jump in domestic and foreign investments.
And to top it all, the country’s per capita income has hit US$9,700 from US$7,500 in 2010.
The EIU agrees with the upward trajectory, saying that “following an estimated expansion of 5.2 percent in 2012, we expect the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to grow at the same rate during the 2013-17 forecast period."
Growth figures announced yesterday by the Statistics Department showed that the economy accelerated to 6.4 percent in the last quarter of 2012, and supports the full year growth to expand by 5.6 percent from the 5.1 percent a year earlier.
'Writing on the wall for Pakatan'
Against such a backdrop, the EIU said that "it’s no wonder the writing is on the wall for Pakatan as it tries to cobble together some opposition unity between its squabbling leaders before the polls."
And to top it all, per capita income hit US$9,700 from US$7,500 in 2010.
The EIU agrees with the upward trajectory: “Following an estimated expansion of 5.2 percent in 2012, we expect GDP to grow at the same rate during the 2013-17 forecast period.”
Growth figures announced yesterday by the Statistics Department showed that the economy accelerated to 6.4 percent growth in the last quarter of 2012 and supporting the full year growth to expand by 5.6 percent from 5.1 percent a year earlier.
Against such a backdrop, the EIU said: “No wonder the writing is on the wall for Pakatan as it tries to cobble together some opposition unity between its squabbling leaders before the polls.”
- Bernama
